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  3. 2026 US Senate Election: will the party of the winner of this state's senate seat go on to win senate control?
Manifold Markets

2026 US Senate Election: will the party of the winner of this state's senate seat go on to win senate control?

One-OffPoliticaUS PoliticsElezione4m
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSenza KYC
Previsione della comunità attuale
Manifold Markets
Texas 63.5%
In testa tra 10 esiti
Previsori

4

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 9 giorni fa

Obsoleto
1 giu 26, 8:484 nov 26, 23:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

Texas64%

Regole

Each answer the resolves independently from each other.

Manifold Markets
  • Resolves YES for a state, if the party who wins that senate seat controls the 2026 US Senate.
  • In the case of a 50-50 tie, this is a republican controlled senate, because of the vice president's tie breaking vote.
  • Example: if democrats win Alaska while republicans win Texas, with the end result being a republican controlled senate, then Alaska resolves NO while Texas resolves YES.
  • You may add new answers on this market, but do note that non competitive states are discouraged because they will just be equivalent to the default "which party wins senate control" market.
  • Update 2026-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For independent candidates (e.g., Nebraska's Dan Osborn):

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Regole

Each answer the resolves independently from each other.

Manifold Markets
  • Resolves YES for a state, if the party who wins that senate seat controls the 2026 US Senate.
  • In the case of a 50-50 tie, this is a republican controlled senate, because of the vice president's tie breaking vote.
  • Example: if democrats win Alaska while republicans win Texas, with the end result being a republican controlled senate, then Alaska resolves NO while Texas resolves YES.
  • You may add new answers on this market, but do note that non competitive states are discouraged because they will just be equivalent to the default "which party wins senate control" market.
  • Update 2026-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For independent candidates (e.g., Nebraska's Dan Osborn):