How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?

0.4 pt (24h)YearlyPolitica US Politics Elezione3m

KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiCalibrazione approssimativa

Probabilità implicita attuale

4 55%

In testa tra 6 esiti

Qualita del mercato

55 / 100

Qualità media

Volume 24h

37,4 €

Liquidità

96,5K €

Alta liquidità

Bid / Ask

4.2% / 8.5%

Spread

4.3 pt

Spread moderato

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 11 minuti fa

18 gen 26, 17:003 nov 26, 15:00

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria

Esito scelto

54%

Puntata (USDT)

Regole

If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes.

To be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.
In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates.
For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency.
In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.
If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 3, then the market resolves to Yes.

Trend del volume

$43

2 lug26g di dati27 lug

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Regole

If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes.

To be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.
In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates.
For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency.
In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.
If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 3, then the market resolves to Yes.

How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?

0.4 pt (24h)YearlyPolitica US Politics Elezione3m

KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiCalibrazione approssimativa

Probabilità implicita attuale

4 55%

In testa tra 6 esiti

Qualita del mercato

55 / 100

Qualità media

Volume 24h

37,4 €

Liquidità

96,5K €

Alta liquidità

Bid / Ask

4.2% / 8.5%

Spread

4.3 pt

Spread moderato

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 11 minuti fa

18 gen 26, 17:003 nov 26, 15:00

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria

Esito scelto

54%

Puntata (USDT)

Regole

If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes.

To be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.
In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates.
For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency.
In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.
If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 3, then the market resolves to Yes.

Trend del volume

$43

2 lug26g di dati27 lug

Mercati Correlati

Which bills will become law in 2026?

4,4K €

College sports federalization: 23%

Blue wave in 2026?

How many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026?

0 €

Exactly 1: 65%

KALSHI

Will Elon register any party before 2027?

0 €

Sì: 3%

POLYMARKET

Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?

0 €

Sì: 10%

POLYMARKET

US bans social media for children in 2026?

0 €

Sì: 7%

KALSHI

Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$64,833.61+0.16%

EthereumETH$1,937.63+1.22%

SolanaSOL$75.57+0.27%

XRPXRP$1.09-1.17%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0718-1.25%

HyperliquidHYPE$56.63-4.07%

Notizie Correlate

Polymarket odds swing: Eizenkot hits 51% as Israel campaign kicks offBlockchain.News

Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News

White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk

Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News

White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph

Polymarket odds show Vance at 19.85% as Epstein files critique hits tapeBlockchain.News

Regole

If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes.

To be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.
In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates.
For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency.
In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.
If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 3, then the market resolves to Yes.