KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiestoDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Lula da Silva, ≥1% 11%In testa tra 5 esiti
Lula da Silva, ≥1% 11%Qualità del mercato
57 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
1,1K €
Open interest
1,1K €
Open interest bassoSpread
1.0 pt
Spread strettoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 minuti fa
5 ott 26, 21:00 UTC25 ott 27, 14:00 UTC
Trend
Condizioni della piattaforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Queste condizioni sono informative; il trading simulato di CoinRithm segue regole proprie.
- Chiusura anticipata:
- Sì
- Tempo di liquidazione:
- 30m (indicativo)
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: margin of victory
KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: which states will Flávio Bolsonaro win?
Kalshi🇧🇷 Will Brazil’s 2026 presidential runoff be decided by less than 3 percentage points?
Manifold MarketsRegole
If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
- The margin of victory is the share of valid votes (excluding blank and null votes) received by Lula da Silva minus the share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses. If Lula da Silva wins, the margin will be positive; if Lula da Silva loses, the margin will be negative; if Lula da Silva ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Lula da Silva runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Regole per ogni esito
- Lula da Silva, ≥1%
- If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Lula da Silva, ≥3%
- If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Lula da Silva, ≥5%
- If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Lula da Silva, ≥7%
- If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 7%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Lula da Silva, ≥9%
- If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 9%, then the market resolves to Yes.
