Probabilità implicita attuale
Sì 78%
Qualita del mercato
32 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
775,4 €
Bassa liquiditàTraders
9
Comments
0
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 minuto fa
Trend
Regole
This event predicts whether 2026 will be the warmest year on record based on global average surface temperature measurements.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be NASA’s Global Temperature Index (GISTEMP) annual data release for 2026.
- If NASA’s data shows that 2026 has the highest global average temperature on record at the time of release, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- If NASA ceases to publish this data or it is exceptionally unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on equivalent datasets from other major climate authorities, such as the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
- Resolution will reflect the substantive ranking of 2026’s temperature relative to prior years, not later data revisions.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
Riferimento CoinRithm 47% · 2 piattaforme · 31 pt di scarto tra venue
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will 2026 be the warmest year on record??
- Futuur quota Yes al 78% al 25 agosto 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will 2026 be the warmest year on record??
- Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will 2026 be the warmest year on record??
- Futuur liquida questo mercato come segue: This event predicts whether 2026 will be the warmest year on record based on global average surface temperature measurements.
- Dove altro è quotato Will 2026 be the warmest year on record??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su ForecastEx, Manifold Markets.