PredictItVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution non vérifiéesRetail prediction exchange
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Benjamin Netanyahu 80%En tête parmi 10 options
Benjamin Netanyahu 80%Méthodologie
Retail prediction exchange
Type de question
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Volume 24h
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
23 janv. 26, 16:11 UTC17 janv. 30, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
KalshiWhich of these African leaders will leave office next?
KalshiWhich World Leaders will leave office before EOY 2027? (Add Answers)
Manifold MarketsWhich of these 10 European leaders will leave office next?
PredictItWill Trump leave office early?
PredictItWho will leave office first: RFK Jr., Hegseth, or Patel?
KalshiRègles
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that the individual holds upon launch of this market on January 23, 2026.
- No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. - In the event that the tiebreaker needs to be implemented, the last name will be the last word displayed in the contract, regardless of local custom on name order.
In the event of an unclear outcome, PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. - In such case, an incumbent shall be considered to no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
