Alerte qualité des donnéesPrix non significatif
Données au 18 août 2026, 17:00 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Alaska 0%En tête parmi 9 options
Méthodologie
Retail prediction exchange
Type de question
-
Volume 24h
—
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
Tendances
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Règles
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the 2026 Senate election, among those listed in this market, that is won by the smallest percentage margin of the popular vote between the first-place and second-place candidates.
- Should a state reallocate votes under a ranked-choice voting system, this market shall be resolved according to the popular vote count of the last reported round.
- Should any election go to a second round, this market shall be resolved according to the results from that second round.
All listed contracts refer to regularly scheduled general election races.
The margin of victory shall be calculated by using the difference between the percentage of votes for the first place winner and the percentage of votes for the second place winner. - Percentages of the popular vote shall be determined by dividing the number of votes won by each candidate over the total of votes for all ballot-listed candidates and write-ins officially reported.
- In a ranked-choice election, only votes that are active in the last round reported shall be considered.
Should the most specific data available indicate a tie between two or more contests, this market will resolve in favor of the first alphabetical state among those so tied.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. - Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Référence CoinRithm Texas 17% · 2 plateformes · bande de 2 pt
Marchés ouverts
Politics
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
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- Volume total
- 11,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 947,9 k €
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.3pt34.7%
- Édouard Philippe27.4%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14.7%
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17.3%
- Jon Ossoff16.4%
- Gavin Newsom+2.0pt15.4%
+44 résultats de plus
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POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva63.4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+0.2pt32.7%
- Renan Santos+0.1pt4%
+29 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance20%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt12%
+125 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt85%
- Republican Party15%
- Volume total
- 20,3 M €
- Volume 24h
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which 2026 Senate race will be the closest? ?
- PredictIt cote Alaska à 0% au 21 août 2026.
- Comment Which 2026 Senate race will be the closest? est-il réglé ?
- PredictIt règle ce marché comme suit : The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the 2026 Senate election, among those listed in this market, that is won by the smallest percentage margin of the popular vote between the first-place and second-place candidates.
- Où Which 2026 Senate race will be the closest? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Polymarket, Kalshi.