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Données au 1 sept. 2026, 20:40 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelle
December 31 99%+1.8ptEn tête parmi 7 options
Qualité du marché
49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
676,1 €
Liquidité
11,6 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
0.9 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
4
Variation 7j
+32.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète4 févr. 26, 0:551 janv. 27, 4:59
Tendances
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Règles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494433° N, 37.377320° E in Sofiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the named outcome, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
Marchés ouverts
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- New People (NL)-1.0pt24%
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+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 20,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 221,8 k €
POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt24%
- October 31-2.0pt13%
- December 31, 2025-0.1pt0%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt15%
- December7%
- September 30,-0.3pt1%
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- No+0.1pt99%
- Yes-0.1pt1%
- Volume total
- 301,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 44,6 k €
POLYMARKETWill Russia enter Hannivka by which date?
- December 31+16.9pt98%
- September 30+39.0pt97%
- August 31-5.0pt0%
POLYMARKETWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt39%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.1pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
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- United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
- Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by which date?
- Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Will Russia capture Sumy by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
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- Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Russia capture Sofiivka by which date? ?
- Polymarket cote December 31 à 99% au 1 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Russia capture Sofiivka by which date? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Russia capture Sofiivka by which date? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will Russia capture Sofiivka by which date? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494433° N, 37.377320° E in Sofiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the named outcome, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.