Probabilité implicite actuelle
Non 57%-1.5pt
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
14,5 €
Liquidité
800,6 €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
41.0% / 44.0%
Écart
3.0 pt
Spread modéréCommentaires
3
Variation 7j
+10.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 minutes
27 mars 26, 18:13 UTC31 déc. 26, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will the EU reach a long-term budget deal?
KalshiNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
PolymarketWhich leaders will leave office in 2026?
KalshiWho replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French parliament passes a 2027 national budget (Loi de Finances pour 2027) and it is published in the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET (UTC+01:00).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying budget must provide funding for the entire year 2027.
- Special or emergency funding bills will not qualify.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, specifically the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) (journal-officiel.gouv.fr).
- However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marchés ouverts
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- No+12.0pt81.2%
- Yes-12.0pt18.8%
- Volume total
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- Volume 24h
- 1 M €
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.3pt19%
- Jon Ossoff+0.8pt17%
- Gavin Newsom+0.5pt13%
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- D-House, D-Senate+3.0pt50%
- D-House, R-Senate-2.0pt34%
- R-House, R-Senate-3.0pt14%
+1 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 résultats de plus
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- Volume 24h
- 675,8 k €
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- Karen Bass-2.0pt63%
- Nithya Raman+3.0pt37%
- Volume total
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- Volume 24h
- 642,6 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+1.5pt52.5%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt45.5%
- Renan Santos+0.1pt2%
+16 résultats de plus
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Next French Presidential Election
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
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- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Texas Senate winner?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will France pass a national budget by December 31? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 57% au 15 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will France pass a national budget by December 31? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will France pass a national budget by December 31? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will France pass a national budget by December 31? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French parliament passes a 2027 national budget (Loi de Finances pour 2027) and it is published in the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET (UTC+01:00).