Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms?
5.5 pts (24h)PolitiqueOne-OffUS PoliticsÉlection1mois
PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Democratic Party 56.2%+5.5ptEn tête parmi 3 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
44 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
391,4 €
Liquidité
6,3 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
11.0 pt
Spread largeCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
+21.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
18 août 26, 19:27 UTC3 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which party will hold the majority in the House of Representatives in January 2027 in the 120th Congress.
Manifold MarketsWhat party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms
Manifold MarketsWhich party will hold the majority in the US Senate of the 120th Congress in January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?
MetaculusPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRègles
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the party, between the the named outcome and the the named outcome, that holds the most US governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
- If the the named outcome and the the named outcome hold the same number of governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections, this market will resolve to “Tie”.
- This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
- If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
- For governor seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the governor was elected.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
2 plateformes cotent actuellement ce marché. La probabilité de référence pondérée par la liquidité de CoinRithm pour Democratic Party est de 56%. Les cotations s'écartent d'environ 3 points de pourcentage entre les plateformes extrêmes.
Référence CoinRithm Democratic Party 56% · 2 plateformes · 3 pt d’ecart entre venues
- Également disponible sur Kalshi — Who will hold more governorships after the midterms? · Democratic Party 58%
