PolymarketFerméVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréCe marché s'est résolu: October 26–November 1
Résolu: 26 oct. 2026, 21:24
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 23:56 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Chronologie des Probabilités
October 26–November 1100%
November 9–November 150%
December 7–December 130%
December 21–December 270%
No release by December 270%
November 16–November 220%
November 30–December 60%
November 23–November 290%
Prior to October 260%
December 14–December 200%
November 2–November 80%
October 26–November 1Gagné
Avant la clôture: 100% ·
December 14–December 20Perdu
Avant la clôture: 0% ·
December 21–December 27Perdu
Avant la clôture: 0% ·
December 7–December 13Perdu
Avant la clôture: 0% ·
No release by December 27Perdu
Avant la clôture: 0% ·
November 16–November 22Perdu
Avant la clôture: 0% ·
November 23–November 29Perdu
Avant la clôture: 0% ·
November 2–November 8Perdu
Avant la clôture: 0% ·
November 30–December 6Perdu
Avant la clôture: 0% ·
November 9–November 15Perdu
Avant la clôture: 0% ·
Prior to October 26Perdu
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Next GPT Terra Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut?
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Manifold MarketsNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
LimitlessWill "The current SOTA model was released without s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public.
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Terra" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Terra" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify.
- Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
- A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
