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  • Accueil
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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. Géopolitique
  3. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

0.5% (24h)One-OffGéopolitiqueRussia / Ukraine18j
PolymarketPolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de frais
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Oui
Oui 4%
Qualite du marche

64 / 100

Qualité moyenne
Volume 24h

2,7 k €

Liquidité

42,6 k €

Liquidité élevée
Achat / Vente

3.5% / 3.9%

Spread

11.4%

Spread large
Variation 7j

+0.4%

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes

17 déc. 25, 22:4530 juin 26, 0:00

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

Yes4%

Règles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
  • Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
  • The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative.
  • Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.

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Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

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Will there be official peace talks involving both Putin and Zelenskyy before Aug 2026?

129,9 €
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Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?

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If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

43,3 €
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Actifs dans ces sujets

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Règles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
  • Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
  • The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative.
  • Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.