Probabilité implicite actuelle
2nd hottest 74.3%+16.0ptEn tête parmi 4 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
34 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
51,5 €
Liquidité
4,8 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
15.0 pt
Spread largeCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
-16.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 minutes
28 août 26, 15:14 UTC1 oct. 26, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Manifold MarketsThis Aug 2026 is the hottest August ever?
KalshiThis Sep 2026 is the hottest September ever?
KalshiWill summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record?
PolymarketWill summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
- Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
- If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
- If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record? ?
- Polymarket cote 2nd hottest à 74% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record? sera-t-il résolu ?
- September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record? doit être résolu le 1 octobre 2026.
- Comment September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.