Probabilité implicite actuelle
October 31 93%+5.0pt
Qualité du marché
52 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
163,5 €
Liquidité
3 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
91.0% / 94.0%
Écart
3.0 pt
Spread modéréCommentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes
3 sept. 26, 00:00 UTC30 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketGemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date
Manifold MarketsNext Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
PolymarketWill "The current SOTA model was released without s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.7 Flash or Gemini 3.8 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Gemini 3.8 Flash (released September 2, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.
- Specialized modality or security variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, Gemini Flash Cyber, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
Marchés ouverts
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by which date? ?
- Polymarket cote October 31 à 93% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by which date? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by which date? doit être résolu le 30 novembre 2026.
- Comment Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by which date? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).