PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
8–9% 27.9%+0.5ptEn tête parmi 7 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
28,2 k €
Liquidité élevéeÉcart
7.0 pt
Spread largeCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
-3.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 minutes
2 sept. 26, 18:26 UTC7 nov. 26, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Polymarket
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Ordre minimum (parts):
- 5
- Pas de cotation:
- 1 points de pourcentage
- Frais:
- Oui
Règles
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
- This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
- For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
- In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
- In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Marchés ouverts
US Politics
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+2.0pt62.4%
- D-House, R-Senate-1.0pt28.7%
- Republicans sweep-0.5pt7.9%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 16,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5 M €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase52.5%
- No change-1.0pt45.5%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.6pt65%
- October 31-4.0pt35%
- September 30-3.0pt8%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.2pt4%
- September 30-0.6pt0%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 61 M €
- Volume 24h
- 540,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 59,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 539,1 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio-0.5pt15%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 617,7 M €
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- What will Trump say during his United Nations meetings?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Florida Governor winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Texas Senate winner?
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour GOP Black vote share? ?
- Polymarket cote 8–9% à 27.9% au 23 septembre 2026.
- Quand GOP Black vote share? sera-t-il résolu ?
- GOP Black vote share? doit être résolu le 7 novembre 2026.
- Comment GOP Black vote share? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- Où GOP Black vote share? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Kalshi.