KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Above 8% 82%En tête parmi 6 options
Qualité du marché
41 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
7,4 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
7.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 minutes
16 sept. 26, 21:00 UTC6 nov. 26, 16:59 UTC
Tendances
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Règles
If the Republican share of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate Black row in the national U.S. House exit poll table.
- The primary resolution source is the CNN figure displayed at exactly 12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026.
- If unavailable, CNN remains the primary source for 24 hours after that time.
- If it remains unavailable, use CBS News followed by ABC News through 11:59 PM ET on November 7, 2026.
- If the Republican share of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsKALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+2.0pt62.4%
- D-House, R-Senate-1.0pt28.7%
- Republicans sweep-0.5pt7.9%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 16,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5 M €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase52.5%
- No change-1.0pt45.5%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.6pt65%
- October 31-4.0pt35%
- September 30-3.0pt8%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.2pt4%
- September 30-0.6pt0%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 61 M €
- Volume 24h
- 540,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 59,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 539,1 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio-0.5pt15%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 617,7 M €
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- Trump out as President by September 30?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Texas Senate winner?
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Midterms: Republican share of Black vote? ?
- Kalshi cote Above 8% à 82% au 23 septembre 2026.
- Quand Midterms: Republican share of Black vote? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Midterms: Republican share of Black vote? doit être résolu le 6 novembre 2026.
- Comment Midterms: Republican share of Black vote? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the Republican share of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Où Midterms: Republican share of Black vote? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Polymarket.