Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 95%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard22 janv. 25, 16:09 UTC29 janv. 50, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If I buy physical indium for investment, will I regret it in 5 years from now?
Manifold MarketsWill Liquid Death canned water still be sold in USA stores ten years from now? (2024-2034)
Manifold MarketsWill any Mox member (as of Sep 11 2025) be a billionaire 5 years from now?
Manifold MarketsWill my standard of living 3 years from now be meaningfully affected by AI?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in October?
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRègles
[image]This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through BlueSky.
- They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
- I will not be trading in those markets (except buying & selling at market creation to increase trader count).
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt66.3%
- No change-2.0pt32.7%
- 50+ bps increase+0.2pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 11,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5 M €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-0.1pt91.1%
- Republican Party8.9%
- Volume total
- 32,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 849,7 k €
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Jon Ossoff+0.2pt16%
- Gavin Newsom+0.9pt14%
+50 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Democratic Party-4.0pt61%
- Republican Party+3.0pt39%
- Volume total
- 9,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 572,5 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- March 3177%
- December 31+3.3pt62%
- November 3048%
+20 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance-0.1pt51%
- Marco Rubio15%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt3%
+39 résultats de plus
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Maine Senate Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Nebraska Senate winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- New Hampshire Senate winner?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
- Texas Senate winner?
- California Governor winner? (Person)
- How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Years from now, will it "come out that J.D. Vance was paying male hookers"? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 95% au 25 septembre 2026.
- Quand Years from now, will it "come out that J.D. Vance was paying male hookers"? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Years from now, will it "come out that J.D. Vance was paying male hookers"? doit être résolu le 29 janvier 2050.
- Comment Years from now, will it "come out that J.D. Vance was paying male hookers"? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : [image]This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through BlueSky.