Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 62%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète3 août 23, 10:19 UTC1 janv. 00, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)
Manifold MarketsHow many months will elapse between general availability of Level 5 self driving and the first strong AGI?
Manifold MarketsWhich company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria are the same as for the metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/
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