Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 66.3%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète14 mars 26, 07:32 UTC1 févr. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Who will Donald Trump endorse in the 2028 presidential election?
KalshiWho will Trump endorse?
PolymarketWho will Trump endorse for President of Brazil?
PolymarketHow many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (9/19-9/25)
KalshiWill Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro?
KalshiWhich party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if Donald Trump endorses JD Vance for president before polls open on Super Tuesday in 2028.
- Resolves NO otherwise, unless Trump dies before 2028, in which case it resolves N/A. To avoid ambiguity in case the Super Tuesday tradition changes: Super Tuesday is defined for the purposes of this market as the first day in which at least eight states (or DC/territories) hold Republican presidential primaries/caucuses.
- If no such day occurs by the time that at least twenty states (or DC/territories) have held Republican presidential primaries/caucuses, resolves to whether or not Trump has endorsed Vance by the time of the twentieth such primary/caucus.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.3pt18%
- Jon Ossoff+0.1pt17%
- Gavin Newsom-0.1pt16%
+48 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 Md €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff+1.0pt17.7%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.7%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14.6%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 193,8 M €
KALSHIWhat will Trump say this week?
- TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome99%
- Barack Hussein Obama99%
- Cuba / Cuban99%
+34 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 598,4 k €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+0.9pt91%
- Republican Party-1.1pt9%
- Volume total
- 29,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 425,6 k €
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep59.2%
- D-House, R-Senate30.6%
- Republicans sweep-0.4pt9.2%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 14,8 M €
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- December+2.5pt25%
- October+1.5pt18%
- September 30,-0.1pt6%
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Brazil Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Trump endorse Vance by Super Tuesday in 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 66% au 21 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Trump endorse Vance by Super Tuesday in 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Trump endorse Vance by Super Tuesday in 2028? doit être résolu le 1 février 2028.
- Comment Will Trump endorse Vance by Super Tuesday in 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if Donald Trump endorses JD Vance for president before polls open on Super Tuesday in 2028.