Will Trump change his mind on AI before 2027?
Politique commercialeOne-OffPolitique américaineGéopolitiqueChine2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 09:52 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 73%
Prévisionnistes
33
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète20 sept. 26, 07:41 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Currently Trump seems very bullish on AI/AGI and dismissive of AI safety.
- This market will resolve YES if I believe that his position on either has changed significantly.
- It will resolve based on social media posts his accounts make, executive orders etc. as long as it's attributable to him and not a quick quip.
- What he actually believes is not relevant for this market, only what he says and does.
- Trump changes his mind a lot, so I'd need to see a shift lasting longer than a couple days (maybe a week of consistency) to resolve YES, or some large decision like a China deal.
- If I'm not convinced he has changed his mind before EOY 2026, I will resolve this NO.
