Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 85.9%
Prévisionnistes
44
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète8 avr. 23, 18:49 UTC1 janv. 31, 18:29 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses sell at least 10 million units by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRègles
Popular - subjective.
- I'll clarify the criteria as things unfold.
- The idea is that if you can give image inputs to GPT-4 and get back natural language description of the scene, and you can use the description to do task planning, etc, then integration into a smart glasses which processes things you see in real time, it could be v valuable even in jobs which don't directly require one to work with computers, or aren't easily automated (i think the phrase is blue collar work is the phrase, but I'm not familiar with it).
- The integration doesn't have to output text to the smartglasses screen.
- It could take a sequence of actions, have voice integration, or produce outputs in other modalities or forms.
- Something like huggingGPT would also work.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt56.3%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.3%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 102,1 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,4 M €
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 résultats de plus
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 44,4 k €
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 86% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2031.
- Comment Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Popular - subjective.