Will there be any public agreement on frontier AI between China and the US or American AI companies before 2028?
PolitiqueOne-OffIAUS PoliticsChinaTechGéopolitique1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 74.5%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète13 sept. 26, 03:26 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a public assasination attempt on Elon Musk by EOY 2027
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?
Manifold MarketsWill "AI companies should publish security assessments" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsFrontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic sign the Open Weights and American AI Leadership letter?
KalshiFrontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point between September 13, 2026, and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM UTC, a formal, public agreement is announced that specifically addresses frontier AI safety, governance, capability pacing, security, or military application between:
- The government of the United States and the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC), OR
- One or more major American AI companies (defined as US-headquartered frontier AI developers, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, and Microsoft) and either the PRC government or major Chinese AI companies (e.g., Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba, ByteDance, DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, MiniMax).
- Qualifying Agreements:
- Must be a dedicated bilateral or plurilateral agreement, memorandum of understanding (MoU), joint declaration, or treaty.