Will there be another covid-like pandemic during second Trump administration?
PolitiqueOne-OffSanté et médecineMétéoPolitique américaineÉlection2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 90.8%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète27 sept. 26, 07:56 UTC20 janv. 29, 11:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, during Donald Trump’s second presidential administration (defined as beginning on January 20, 2025, and ending when he leaves office or on January 20, 2029, whichever is earlier), there is an outbreak of a novel pathogen or a significantly mutated novel strain of an existing pathogen (excluding SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 variants already known prior to January 20, 2025, and seasonal influenza) that meets at least two (2) of the following four (4) conditions:
- Official WHO Characterization: The World Health Organization (WHO) explicitly characterizes or declares the outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication, report, or press briefing (see WHO Emergencies).
- A declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone does not qualify unless the term "pandemic" is also explicitly used by the WHO.
- Global Mortality Threshold: The novel pathogen causes at least 1,000,000 estimated or confirmed deaths globally within any single continuous 365-day period during the administration, as reported by the WHO, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), or another consensus epidemiologic tracking authority.
- Severe Statewide Mandates in the US: The U.S. Federal Government declares a national public health emergency, and at least ten (10) U.S. states institute statewide "stay-at-home," "safer-at-home," or "shelter-in-place" executive orders restricting non-essential travel and business operations for at least 14 consecutive days.
