Second Trump administration holds at least one oil/gas sale for drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge?
One-OffPolitique américaineMatières premières2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 91%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
20 janv. 25, 08:15 UTC22 janv. 29, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Background The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) has been a focal point of energy policy debates.
- During Trump's first term, a January 2021 lease sale attracted minimal interest, with most bids coming from Alaska's state-owned development corporation rather than major oil companies.
- A subsequent lease sale in January 2025 received no bids at all, highlighting the economic and logistical challenges of Arctic drilling.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if the Trump administration holds at least one lease sale for oil and gas drilling rights in ANWR between January 20, 2025, and January 20, 2029.
- The sale must be officially announced and conducted by the Department of Interior, regardless of whether it receives any bids.
- The market will resolve NO if no such lease sale is held during this period.
