Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 81.6%
Prévisionnistes
69
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète1 juin 24, 14:14 UTC31 déc. 26, 16:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a terrorist attack, shooting, or another mass casualty incident at a gaming event in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Laura Loomer’s terrorist attack prediction be correct?
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KalshiTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Criteria for Resolution:
- Terrorist Operation: There must be an organized terrorist operation explicitly aimed at OpenAI.
- Confirmation of Intent:
- - The intent to target OpenAI must be explicitly stated by the terrorists responsible for the attack.
- - This intent can be confirmed through official statements, government documents, or credible news reports.
- Nature of the Operation:
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
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- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 82% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Criteria for Resolution: