Will the US withdraw military support from Israel before 2030?
PolitiqueGéopolitiqueOne-OffMoyen-Orient3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 84.4%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète15 nov. 23, 13:59 UTC1 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will US withdraw from NATO by which date?
PolymarketWill the United States (US) withdraw from NATO by December 31, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the US withdraw from NATO at anytime during Trump's presidency?
Manifold MarketsWill the US withdraw from AUKUS under Trump?
Manifold MarketsWill the US withdraw from the 1967 Protocol on the Status of Refugees by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Previously nearly-universal support for Israel among the western political powers is starting to degrade.
- Polling in various western countries tends to indicate that a generational shift is underway.
- A major tipping point in this shift will be when it is no longer domestically tenable for the US to officially provide military aid for Israel (e.g. supplying them with money/missiles as a regular budget item).
- Will this happen before January 1st, 2030?
- Edit: The US may still maintain diplomatic relations with Israel, recognize it as a state, consider it an ally, and even provide it with other kinds of foreign aid.
- This question will resolve solely on official military aid supporting Israel’s ability to wage war offensively and defensively (e.g. supplying monetary assistance for the purchase of weapons, and/or supplying those weapons directly, missiles for the Iron Dome, etc).
