Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 51.3%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète11 juin 25, 20:18 UTC21 janv. 29, 11:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the United States (US) withdraw from NATO by December 31, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the US withdraw from NATO at anytime during Trump's presidency?
Manifold MarketsWill US withdraw from NATO by which date?
PolymarketWill the US withdraw military support from Israel before 2030?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
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PolymarketRègles
The pentagon has launched a review of the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal:
- https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/trump-administration-launches-review-biden-era-defense-pact-with-australia-uk-2025-06-11/
- Resolves YES if the US withdraws from the pact, or substantially downgrades its involvment in it, while Trump is president.
- As this could easily fall into a grey zone, I will not place any bet in this market.
- If the outcome is ambiguous, I will rely on a combination of sources and trader input to determine whether the Trump administration effectively "withdrew the US from AUKUS".
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the US withdraw from AUKUS under Trump? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 51% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the US withdraw from AUKUS under Trump? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the US withdraw from AUKUS under Trump? doit être résolu le 21 janvier 2029.
- Comment Will the US withdraw from AUKUS under Trump? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The pentagon has launched a review of the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal: