Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 07:45 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleOui 51.3%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète11 juin 25, 20:18 UTC21 janv. 29, 11:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the United States (US) withdraw from NATO by December 31, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the US withdraw from NATO at anytime during Trump's presidency?
Manifold MarketsWill the US withdraw from the 1967 Protocol on the Status of Refugees by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill US withdraw from NATO by which date?
PolymarketWill the US withdraw military support from Israel before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
The pentagon has launched a review of the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal:
- https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/trump-administration-launches-review-biden-era-defense-pact-with-australia-uk-2025-06-11/
- Resolves YES if the US withdraws from the pact, or substantially downgrades its involvment in it, while Trump is president.
- As this could easily fall into a grey zone, I will not place any bet in this market.
- If the outcome is ambiguous, I will rely on a combination of sources and trader input to determine whether the Trump administration effectively "withdrew the US from AUKUS".
