JavaScript est désactivé. La navigation principale et les pages éditoriales restent disponibles, mais les widgets de marché en direct, les graphiques, la recherche et les fonctions de personnalisation peuvent être limités.

Will the US Justice Department or a major outlet confirm “The Duke” in Epstein files is not Prince Andrew?

Crime & JusticeOne-Off5mois

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 68.4%

Prévisionnistes

8

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 9 heures

Obsolète

8 févr. 26, 16:05 UTC7 févr. 27, 23:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Marchés Associés

Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.

Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?

Will Prince Andrew testify publicly before Congress in 2026?

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor (formerly Prince Andrew) to face criminal charges in 2026?

Manifold Markets

Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?

Will anyone be criminally charged based on evidence from the Epstein files in 2026?

Manifold Markets

What does pizza refer to in Epstein files (in addition to actual pizza food)?

Manifold Markets

Règles

Resolution Criteria

The Epstein files released by the Department of Justice include email exchanges between Epstein and a contact listed as "The Duke," which is believed to refer to Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor (formerly Prince Andrew).
This market resolves YES if the US Justice Department or a major news outlet (defined as outlets with national/international reach and editorial standards, such as AP, Reuters, BBC, NPR, CNN, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Guardian, or equivalent) officially confirms that "The Duke" in the Epstein files refers to someone other than Prince Andrew.
This market resolves NO if no such confirmation is made by February 8, 2027, or if official sources continue to identify "The Duke" as Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor.
Resolution will be determined by checking the DOJ's official Epstein Library at https://www.justice.gov/epstein and statements from major news outlets covering the Epstein files.
Email exchanges between Epstein and an account named "The Duke" are signed "A" with the words "HRH The Duke of York KG" at the bottom — suggesting that the sender is Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, who was known as Prince Andrew and the Duke of York before he was recently barred from using the titles.

Marchés ouverts

Crime & Justice

Trump out as President before 2027?

No94.1%
Yes5.9%

Volume total: 9,8 M €
Volume 24h: 8,6 k €

Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?

2027-5.5pt16%
2026+0.2pt5%

Volume total: 503,3 k €
Volume 24h: 7,6 k €

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

No+5.5pt70.3%
Yes-5.5pt29.7%

Volume total: 353,2 k €
Volume 24h: 6 k €

Iran charges Hormuz fees by which date?

December 3128%
October 31+1.0pt14%
September 30-1.0pt6%

+3 résultats de plus

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time+0.5pt42.2%
60++2.5pt39.2%
20–40+2.8pt10.8%

+2 résultats de plus

Who will be arrested in 2026?

John Brennan-2.0pt22%
Mahmoud Khalil17%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero+2.0pt15%

+21 résultats de plus

Volume total: 1,1 M €

Questions fréquentes

Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the US Justice Department or a major outlet confirm “The Duke” in Epstein files is not Prince Andrew? ?: Manifold Markets cote No à 68% au 9 septembre 2026.
Quand Will the US Justice Department or a major outlet confirm “The Duke” in Epstein files is not Prince Andrew? sera-t-il résolu ?: Will the US Justice Department or a major outlet confirm “The Duke” in Epstein files is not Prince Andrew? doit être résolu le 7 février 2027.
Comment Will the US Justice Department or a major outlet confirm “The Duke” in Epstein files is not Prince Andrew? est-il réglé ?: Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution Criteria

Signaler un problème de données sur ce marché