Les États-Unis connaîtront-ils une crise constitutionnelle avant 2030 ?
One-OffPolitiqueUS PoliticsSociety & Culture3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 55%
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151
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
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Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète10 juil. 23, 08:22 UTC31 déc. 29, 16:01 UTC
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KalshiRègles
To qualify, the crisis should be listed here:
- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_crisis
- If Wikipedia becomes unreliable, defunct, or does not list a crisis but there's a broad consensus that there has been one, then I'm open to resolving according to a different source.
- Update 2025-02-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Broad Consensus Clarification
- If Wikipedia lists a constitutional crisis but there is a broad consensus that it has not occurred, the resolution may be based on a different, less biased source.
- A broad consensus requires more than strong disagreement (for example, stark differences between left and right perspectives); in such a case, Wikipedia remains the guiding source.
