Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 90%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète2 juin 26, 01:32 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Americans rate the economy positively before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Fredie Mac US 30-year fixed-rate average drop below 5.75% before Nov 1, 2026.
Manifold MarketsDrop in India’s S&P long-term credit rating in 2026?
FutuurIn 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%?
Manifold MarketsVisitors to Florida in 2026
KalshiWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the seasonally adjusted U.S. Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) drops below 61.5% (i.e., is reported as 61.4% or lower) for any monthly reporting period in the calendar year 2026 (January 2026 through December 2026).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Source of Truth: The primary source of truth is the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly "Employment Situation" report.
- Specifically, this is the seasonally adjusted series LNS11300000, which can also be tracked on FRED under the series name CIVPART.
- Revisions: The market will resolve based on the values published for each month of 2026 as of the release of the December 2026 data (typically published in early January 2027), including any retroactive revisions to the 2026 months published up to that date.
Marchés ouverts
Macro & EconomyKALSHIVisitors to Florida in 2026
- Above 136 million97%
- Above 138 million-2.0pt94%
- Above 140 million+3.0pt80%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 130,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 51 k €
KALSHIWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes8%
- Volume total
- 2,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 17,9 k €
KALSHIHow high will the Nikkei 225 get in 2026?
- At least ¥73,000-35.0pt30%
- At least ¥74,000-40.0pt27%
- At least ¥80,00024%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 16,9 k €
KALSHIPort of New York and New Jersey container volume in 2026
- Above 8.4 million TEUs95%
- Above 8.6 million TEUs+4.0pt85%
- Above 8.7 million TEUs+3.0pt73%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHICzech National Bank rate decision in September
- Maintain current rate+5.0pt92.4%
- Hike 25bps-6.0pt1.9%
- Cut 50bps1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 44 k €
KALSHIWill the S&P finish positive this year?
- Yes-1.0pt89%
- No11%
- Volume total
- 893,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 8,6 k €
- How high will US gas prices get in 2026?
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 5, 2026
- ISM Services PMI - September 2026
- How high will the S&P get this year?
- Will Canva’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- How low will US gas prices get in 2026?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?
- What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on September 30?
- Traffic through the Suez Canal? (9/7 - 9/13)
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 90% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria