Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030?
InflationOne-OffMacro & EconomyÉconomie3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 64.8%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète7 nov. 24, 22:17 UTC1 janv. 30, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold MarketsUS GDP growth in Q3 2026?
PolymarketUS GDP growth in Q3 2026
FutuurFed Decision in September?
PolymarketRègles
This question will be resolved based on official U.S. economic data, focusing specifically on annual real GDP growth (adjusted for inflation).
- The question will resolve as “Yes” if real GDP growth for any full calendar year exceeds 5% between the years 2024 and 2029, inclusive.
- Otherwise, it will resolve as “No” if no such year exhibits this level of growth by the end of 2029.
- Specific Criteria
- Data Source:
- • The resolution will use official data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) or another recognized authoritative economic body.
Marchés ouverts
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 89,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 541,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 334,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8 k €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 77,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 5,5 k €
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 65% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This question will be resolved based on official U.S. economic data, focusing specifically on annual real GDP growth (adjusted for inflation).