Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 59.4%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète5 août 25, 16:15 UTC6 janv. 29, 17:08 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration
KalshiWhat will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?
KalshiWill DeSantis have a role in Trump’s administration?
Manifold MarketsWill the Trump administration defy any SCOTUS ruling before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsCourt packing during Trump administration?
Manifold MarketsWho will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?
KalshiRègles
Resolves Yes if the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 is still publishing data when Donald Trump leaves office, No otherwise.
- At the time when Trump leaves office, I will check https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets/OCO2_L2_Fwd_FP_11.2/summary?keywords=oco2%20v11.2 for recently published data, or look at another URL if that one is down and commenters suggest that the observatory is still publishing data at a different URL.
- If the OCO2 crashes into the atmosphere, becoming an incandescent trail of plasma and debris, this market may resolve early.
- https://www.npr.org/2025/08/04/nx-s1-5453731/nasa-carbon-dioxide-satellite-mission-threatened
Marchés ouverts
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 695,7 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volume total
- 24,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 294,7 k €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 291,3 k €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 survive the Trump administration? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 59% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 survive the Trump administration? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 survive the Trump administration? doit être résolu le 6 janvier 2029.
- Comment Will the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 survive the Trump administration? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves Yes if the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 is still publishing data when Donald Trump leaves office, No otherwise.