Will the next “public health emergency of int’l concern” be preceded by a matching simulation?
One-OffSanté et médecine4aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 18:05 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 92%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète2 sept. 22, 21:22 UTC10 janv. 31, 05:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will WHO classify the current hantavirus outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by end of 2026?
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KalshiWill the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill WHO declare a global health emergency not directly based on epidemic concerns by 2030?
Manifold MarketsPlague declared public health emergency by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Anything as coincidental as these will count for a 100% resolution, while generic “pandemic preparedness” without similar timing/virus-type settles close to 0%.
- https://hub.jhu.edu/2019/11/06/event-201-health-security/
- https://nypost.com/2022/05/28/monkeypox-simulation-in-2021-predicted-current-outbreak/amp/