Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 78.9%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète25 févr. 25, 05:09 UTC5 mars 50, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
Resolves YES if an ecumenical council is convened by the pope following Pope Francis (An ecumenical council in any location is enough to resolve this as YES.
- It does not have to happen in Vatican City, and does not have to be called "Vatican 3." The name is just making reference to Vatican 2, the most recent ecumenical council).
- Resolves N/A if Pope Francis convenes an ecumenical council, or there's somehow no new pope before 2040.
Marchés ouverts
Religion
POLYMARKETWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- No99%
- Yes1%
- Volume total
- 56,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 12,6 k €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No96%
- Yes-76.0pt4%
- Volume total
- 8,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,4 k €
KALSHIWho will the next Pope be?
- Pietro Parolin5%
- Luis Antonio Tagle5%
- Matteo Zuppi4%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 118 k €
- Volume 24h
- 63,7 €
PREDICTITWill the Pope excommunicate JD Vance before 2028?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Volume total
- 674,4 €
- Volume 24h
- —
FUTUURRestrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?
- No81%
- Yes19%
- Volume total
- 3,1 €
- Volume 24h
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSGutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)
- Yes55.3%
- No44.7%
- Volume total
- 2,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- —
- Catholic Church in Germany ordains women before Christmas 2028?
- Will the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches reconcile before 2050?
- Will membership in the LDS church decline YoY in any year between now and 2030
- Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?
- What percentage of humans will follow Islam in 2100?
- Will there be a trend spike for the term "Animism" before 2035?
- Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028
- Scientology loses IRS Tax-exempt status
- Will Joe Rogan convert to Islam by the end of 2030?
- Will Jesus Christ return in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the next pope convene Vatican 3? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 79% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the next pope convene Vatican 3? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the next pope convene Vatican 3? doit être résolu le 5 mars 2050.
- Comment Will the next pope convene Vatican 3? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if an ecumenical council is convened by the pope following Pope Francis (An ecumenical council in any location is enough to resolve this as YES.