Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"?
RégulationOne-OffIA3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 64.9%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète1 juil. 26, 00:38 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?
Manifold MarketsWill it be possible to post to Twitter via Claude's Model Context Protocol by EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Prediction Markets be banned in the US before 31 December, 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
PolymarketRègles
A new unique model so not opus, sonnet, haiku, fable etc
- Resolution criteria
- Target Model: This market resolves based on the first brand-new, uniquely named Claude model tier or family released by Anthropic after July 1, 2026.
- To qualify, the model must use a completely new class/tier name (e.g., if Anthropic releases "Claude 6 Sonnet" or "Fable 6", it does not count).
- It must not belong to the Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos families.
- Definition of "Banned": The model will resolve YES if, within 90 days of its official public release (via API or web interface), any of the following occur:
Marchés ouverts
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7 k €
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-14.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-15.0pt38%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-5.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T20%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.1%
- $1.5T–$1.75T18.1%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 96,6 k €
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 65% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : A new unique model so not opus, sonnet, haiku, fable etc