Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 89.6%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète28 déc. 23, 09:26 UTC1 janv. 31, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Artificial Intelligence drive at least 3.5% of Global GDP in 2030?
Manifold Markets👽 Will scientists announce a credible potential signal from extraterrestrial intelligence before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill humanity detect evidence of an extraterrestrial intelligence before the year 2100?
Manifold MarketsUN agency for artificial intelligence created in 2026?
FutuurLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketNext Grok Model (4.7+) released on?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if, by December 31, 2030, the first confirmed sign of extraterrestrial intelligence is identified specifically as an artificial intelligence.
- The identification must meet the following criteria:
- Scientific Validation: The identification of extraterrestrial intelligence as an artificial intelligence must be reported in at least one peer-reviewed scientific publication in a journal of significant academic recognition.
- The publication should be in fields such as astrobiology, astronomy, artificial intelligence, or related scientific disciplines.
- High-impact journals like ‘Nature’, ‘Science’, or similar status publications are preferable.
- Confirmation by Expert Panels or Authorities: The identification must be independently confirmed or endorsed by at least two expert panels or recognized authorities in the fields of extraterrestrial research, artificial intelligence, or space exploration.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the first sign of extraterrestrial intelligence be identified as an artificial intelligence by 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 90% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the first sign of extraterrestrial intelligence be identified as an artificial intelligence by 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the first sign of extraterrestrial intelligence be identified as an artificial intelligence by 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2031.
- Comment Will the first sign of extraterrestrial intelligence be identified as an artificial intelligence by 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if, by December 31, 2030, the first confirmed sign of extraterrestrial intelligence is identified specifically as an artificial intelligence.