Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 71%
Prévisionnistes
175
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète26 mars 24, 16:52 UTC2 janv. 40, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What will be true of the next person to walk on the moon? [ADD RESPONSES]
Manifold MarketsWill Supergirl (2026) make back its budget + 50 million dollars?
Manifold MarketsWill the first person to walk on Mars be an Atheist?
Manifold MarketsWill a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
KalshiSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRègles
If there are multiple people in the first mission, any of them getting back to Earth will resolve YES.
- Must still be alive.
- Market open until it happens
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 14, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,500 or above99%
- $74,250 or above99%
- $73,250 or above99%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 685,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 680,9 k €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 12 - September 14, 2026?
- 65-89+50.5pt56.4%
- 40-64-6.6pt41.6%
- 90-114+1.6pt2%
+7 résultats de plus
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No74.1%
- Yes25.9%
- Volume total
- 303,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 298,8 k €
KALSHIBitcoin price at the end of 2026
- 75,000 to 79,999.99+0.4pt13.9%
- 70,000 to 74,999.99+0.4pt12%
- 80,000 to 84,999.99+1.7pt12%
+25 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
- 180-199+4.0pt24.5%
- 200-219+10.0pt24.5%
- 220-239+7.0pt15.7%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 18, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $66,000 or above98%
- $67,000 or above98%
- $65,500 or above97%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 452,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 143 k €
- NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down - Daily
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Where will it rain on Sep 14, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 14, 2026?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 15 - September 22, 2026?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 14, 2026?
- BTC 15 min · $77,736.55 target
- ETH price on Sep 14, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 71% au 14 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2040.
- Comment Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : If there are multiple people in the first mission, any of them getting back to Earth will resolve YES.