Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuellesafely returns to Earth 93.9%En tête parmi 35 options
Prévisionnistes
57
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète7 avr. 24, 05:06 UTC31 déc. 39, 15:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
🧑🚀 What will be true about the first person(s) to walk on a planet other than Mars and Earth? [ADD RESPONSES]
Manifold MarketsWill the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the first person to walk on Mars before December 31st, 2039
Manifold MarketsWill the next person to walk on the moon be American?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets October 27 - November 3, 2026?
PolymarketNasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
All are at the time of moon walk unless otherwise specified.
- Add your own.
- Should be easily verified (ie nothing like "they love pineapple on pizza").
- Intention is "what will be the properties of Neil Armstrong 2.0".
- In general, all items are taken to be "as publicly known, at the time of the landing".
- So if the astronaut is trans but stealth and this has somehow not come up, it would resolve 'NO' for 'the named outcome'.