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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète13 nov. 24, 07:31 UTC31 déc. 50, 18:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a crewed Mars flyby or Mars orbit mission be attempted before a crewed Mars landing mission?
Manifold MarketsWill an eco-terrorism act causing a significant loss of life (10+) occur before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWho will launch the first crewed Mars flyby mission, USA or China?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiRègles
Trading will be extended until the first crewed mars mission will happen The mission's goals must involve at least getting into Mars' orbit (flybys won't count) Mission abortion can be defined as a "partial failure" or inability to complete any single important milestone of the mission (e.g. a decision to not land on Mars if the initial mission involved crewed landing).
- Apollo 13 would count as a mission abortion Loss of life or mission abortion can happen on any stage of the mission
- Update 2025-07-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that reaching Mars orbit is defined as a successful insertion burn.