Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNeither by end of 2035 47%En tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète1 juin 26, 14:10 UTC31 déc. 35, 23:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a crewed Mars flyby or Mars orbit mission be attempted before a crewed Mars landing mission?
Manifold MarketsWill China successfully complete a Mars Sample Return mission before the USA and Europe do?
Manifold MarketsWill the first crewed Mars mission result in a loss of at least 1 life or mission abortion before reaching Mars orbit?
Manifold MarketsWho will launch the first crewed space station with functioning artificial gravity (via rotation)?
Manifold MarketsWhere will it rain on Oct 26, 2026?
KalshiBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- Resolves to whichever party first launches a crewed spacecraft on a trajectory passing within ~50,000 km of Mars.
- "USA" includes any US-based company (SpaceX, etc.) or public agency (NASA). "China" includes CNSA or any Chinese entity.
- A landing is NOT required — a flyby trajectory with crew aboard at the time of launch is sufficient.
- Resolved by launch date.
- If a landing mission flies by Mars en route, it counts as a flyby for this purpose.
