Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 63.4%
Prévisionnistes
69
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète18 avr. 24, 16:09 UTC1 févr. 40, 15:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsBy the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Opus released on?
PolymarketTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
AGI strictly refers to strong AI that surpasses or matches humans at every task.
- Any architecture that primarily relies on using next-token prediction, such as GPT 4 or Claude 3 would count as an LLM.
- Update 2026-08-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Agentic wrappers and harnesses (such as those handling tool calls, context management, or preloaded skills) do not prevent a system from counting as an LLM.
- The architecture will still be considered as relying on next-token prediction if its core intelligence is derived from the underlying model.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+72.4pt74.5%
- September 23+11.6pt13.7%
- September 24+3.8pt4.9%
+13 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 269,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 199,9 k €
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-4.0pt27%
- Mark Carney-3.0pt19%
- Pope Leo XIV-7.0pt9%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,3 M €
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
+13 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 4,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 107,5 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt70.3%
- ChatGPT-0.9pt13.9%
- Gemini-1.7pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,3 M €
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.2pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 85 k €
- Volume 24h
- 65,3 k €
- Best AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) released on?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the first AGI be a large language model? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 63.4% au 22 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the first AGI be a large language model? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the first AGI be a large language model? doit être résolu le 1 février 2040.
- Comment Will the first AGI be a large language model? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : AGI strictly refers to strong AI that surpasses or matches humans at every task.