Prévision communautaire actuelle
N = 100 85.1%-8.8ptEn tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
87
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-6.3 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 minutes
2 juin 25, 20:0831 déc. 26, 23:59
Tendances
Règles
Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has added answer options for the following values of N:
- Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided the following definitions for how the market will be resolved:
- A robotaxi service is defined as one where a user can request a ride on-demand, similar to Uber or Lyft.
- It will still count if riders must first join a waitlist.
- The fleet size will be determined by the total number of Teslas used for an autonomous ride by someone other than the owner.
- A vehicle is considered "actively operating" if it provides at least one such ride within any given week.
Marchés ouverts
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt93%
- Before Dec 1, 2026+4.0pt92%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+3.0pt92%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 158,8 k €
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $73,000 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
+36 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 168,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 155,2 k €
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.9pt92%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-1.1pt97%
+10 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,89%
- October 31,+2.0pt83%
- October 15,-16.0pt53%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.8pt68.9%
- Grok-1.7pt10.7%
- ChatGPT-3.6pt8.7%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 7,9 M €
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- BMW Championship Winner
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- GPT-6 released by which date?
- XRP price on August 21
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- BTC price on August 31
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- ZEC price on August 21
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote N = 100 à 85% au 21 août 2026.
- Quand Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has added answer options for the following values of N: