Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 69.2%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète2 avr. 25, 23:19 UTC31 déc. 39, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Iceland become a member of the EU before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill Norway become a member of the EU before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill Canada become a member of the EU before 2040?
Manifold MarketsSwitzerland’s September Referendum: What will pass?
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketRègles
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Switzerland has become a member of the European Union before January 1st 2040.
- This also applies if a main successor to Switzerland joins a main successor to the EU before that date. “Strong evidence” may include formal accession treaties, official announcements by relevant governing bodies, or other clear confirmation that membership has been granted.
- If there is no such membership or evidence thereof by January 1st 2040, the market will resolve as NO.
Marchés ouverts
EuropePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 617,4 k €
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.9pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 821,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 107,7 k €
POLYMARKETMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- AfD+2.0pt78.4%
- SPD-1.0pt21.6%
- CDU0%
+5 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson+1.0pt77.5%
- Ulf Kristersson-2.0pt20.6%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.8pt1%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Berlin State Election Winner
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?
- AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?
- Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Switzerland become a member of the EU before 2040? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 69% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Switzerland become a member of the EU before 2040? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Switzerland become a member of the EU before 2040? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2039.
- Comment Will Switzerland become a member of the EU before 2040? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Switzerland has become a member of the European Union before January 1st 2040.