Will "Stress Testing Deliberative Alignment for Ant..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
One-OffIA4moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 85.9%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète19 sept. 25, 00:14 UTC1 févr. 27, 00:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will "6 reasons why “alignment-is-hard” discourse s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
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Manifold MarketsWill "Orienting Toward Wizard Power" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Michelle Bowman say during remarks on bank stress testing?
KalshiBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Stress Testing Deliberative Alignment for Anti-Scheming Training is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-3.5pt84.6%
- Moonshot+4.7pt10.6%
- Z.ai+0.3pt1.9%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 410,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 56,4 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.4pt70%
- ChatGPT-0.8pt15%
- Gemini+0.1pt7%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,7 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt87%
- December 15,+1.0pt84%
- November 30,+6.0pt79%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%91%
- Above 4.5%+19.0pt41%
- Above 5.6%+10.0pt20%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 58,4 k €
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 22.7%99%
- Above 21.7%99%
- Above 23.6%-1.0pt95%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 70 k €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 résultats de plus
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best AI this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will "Stress Testing Deliberative Alignment for Ant..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 86% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will "Stress Testing Deliberative Alignment for Ant..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will "Stress Testing Deliberative Alignment for Ant..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? doit être résolu le 1 février 2027.
- Comment Will "Stress Testing Deliberative Alignment for Ant..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.