Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 76.9%
Prévisionnistes
32
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 32 minutes
3 nov. 25, 06:02 UTC1 janv. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship reach Mars by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich milestone occurs first: AGI deployment, Starship Mars landing, or ice-free Arctic summer?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of November?
PolymarketRègles
"To Mars" just means that the target of the mission is, in some meaningful sense, the planet Mars.
- It doesn't have to be a landing; an orbit around the planet or a close flyby also qualify.
- However simply going out past Mars's orbital distance from the sun, while not actually approaching the planet itself, does not count.
- "Send" means that the rocket actually started on its mission.
- A mission that is simply scheduled for the future does not count.
- A mission that lifts off and then blows up 2 feet above the launch pad still counts.
