Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 96.7%
Prévisionnistes
175
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète7 févr. 23, 18:16 UTC1 janv. 28, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship reach Mars by 2028?
Manifold MarketsStarship to Mars Multi-choice Matrix
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiRègles
"To Mars" just means that the target of the mission is, in some meaningful sense, the planet Mars.
- It doesn't have to be a landing; an orbit around the planet or a close flyby also qualify.
- However simply going out past Mars's orbital distance from the sun, while not actually approaching the planet itself, does not count.
- "Send" means that a rocket lifted off the launchpad for that target.
- A mission that is simply scheduled for the future does not count.
- A mission that lifts off and then blows up 2 feet above the launch pad still counts.
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 802,6 k €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume total
- 736,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 585,6 k €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 97% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2028.
- Comment Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : "To Mars" just means that the target of the mission is, in some meaningful sense, the planet Mars.