Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 08:46 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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175
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète7 févr. 23, 18:16 UTC1 janv. 28, 08:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship reach Mars by 2028?
Manifold MarketsStarship to Mars Multi-choice Matrix
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of November?
PolymarketRègles
"To Mars" just means that the target of the mission is, in some meaningful sense, the planet Mars.
- It doesn't have to be a landing; an orbit around the planet or a close flyby also qualify.
- However simply going out past Mars's orbital distance from the sun, while not actually approaching the planet itself, does not count.
- "Send" means that a rocket lifted off the launchpad for that target.
- A mission that is simply scheduled for the future does not count.
- A mission that lifts off and then blows up 2 feet above the launch pad still counts.
