Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 14 ?
Latin AmericaOne-OffTechSpace3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 84.2%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète25 juin 26, 13:42 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 15 ?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX execute a ship catch attempt during Starship flight 14 ?
Manifold MarketsBefore which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
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PolymarketSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
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FutuurRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, during SpaceX's 14th integrated Starship flight test (commonly referred to as Starship Flight 14 or IFT-14), SpaceX executes an active attempt to catch the first-stage Super Heavy booster using the launch tower's "chopstick" arms (Mechazilla).
- What constitutes a "catch attempt"? A catch attempt is defined as the Super Heavy booster returning to a launch pad (e.g., Starbase, Texas) and attempting a landing burn to guide itself into the launch tower's arms for recovery.
- Success is not required for a YES resolution: If the booster guides itself to the tower to attempt a catch, the market resolves to YES even if the catch ultimately fails (e.g., the booster crashes, explodes, or damages the tower during the catch sequence).
- What resolves to NO? The market will resolve to NO if:
- The booster is intentionally diverted to a water landing (such as a splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico) without attempting a tower catch.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 14 ? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 84% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 14 ? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 14 ? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 14 ? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria