Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
9.5 pts (24h)Tech4moManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleIFT 14 61.1%+9.5ptEn tête parmi 13 options
Prévisionnistes
39
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-21.3 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 22 minutes
19 mars 24, 3:462 janv. 27, 15:59
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Règles
An 'orbit' here is defined as a trajectory on which if no re-entry burn is fired Starship would remain in space for a period of over 24 hours (I don't want to get 'burned' by some sort of wacky sub-orbital flight that still lands at Starbase or in the Atlantic after one circumnavigation.
- I will add an the named outcome if Other is larger than any other option for a non-trivial period of time (and so on, by induction)
- If SpaceX changes the naming convention, for example to OFT, this question will still apply.
- If SpaceX announces before the named outcome that the named outcome will orbit, the named outcome would be the one to resolve YES.
- If they did this I would still wait until before the (eg) #6 flight to check they didn't change it based on what happened in #5
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit? ?
- Manifold Markets cote IFT 14 à 61% au 21 août 2026.
- Quand Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2027.
- Comment Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : An 'orbit' here is defined as a trajectory on which if no re-entry burn is fired Starship would remain in space for a period of over 24 hours (I don't want to get 'burned' by some sort of wacky sub-orbital flight that still lands at Starbase or in the Atlantic after one circumnavigation.