Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 71.5%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 32 minutes
21 juin 26, 02:49 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
How many orbital launches will there be in 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow many crewed orbital space launches will there be in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX be the customer for more than half of orbital payload mass in 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
KalshiHow many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
KalshiHow many SpaceX launches in September 2026?
PolymarketRègles
In 2022, there were 178 successful orbital launches; SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets accounted for 61 of them, or 34% of successful launches.
- In 2023, Falcon rockets accounted for 96 out of 211, or 45%.
- In 2024, it was 133 out of 255:@/EvanDaniel/will-spacex-conduct-at-least-half-o
- In 2025, it was 165 out of 317.
- In 2026 so far, it is 72 out of 140.
- Will SpaceX be responsible for over half of successful orbital launches in 2027?
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 802,6 k €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume total
- 736,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 585,6 k €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will SpaceX conduct at least half of all successful orbital launches in 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 72% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will SpaceX conduct at least half of all successful orbital launches in 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will SpaceX conduct at least half of all successful orbital launches in 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment Will SpaceX conduct at least half of all successful orbital launches in 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : In 2022, there were 178 successful orbital launches; SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets accounted for 61 of them, or 34% of successful launches.