Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 65.8%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 48 minutes
En retard30 juin 26, 00:21 UTC2 oct. 26, 12:25 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for September 2026 reports that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by at least 150,000 jobs.
- Use the headline establishment-survey change in total nonfarm payroll employment, seasonally adjusted.
- A value of +150,000 or higher resolves YES.
- A value of +149,000 or lower resolves NO.
- Negative values resolve NO.
- Do not use the unemployment rate, household-survey employment, labor-force participation, ADP, initial claims, JOLTS, average hourly earnings, private-payrolls-only, sector payrolls, state payrolls, forecast consensus, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial September 2026 release before resolution.
Marchés ouverts
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 89,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 541,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 334,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8 k €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 77,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 5,5 k €
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will September 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 66% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will September 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will September 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000? doit être résolu le 2 octobre 2026.
- Comment Will September 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for September 2026 reports that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by at least 150,000 jobs.