Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 81.6%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète27 déc. 23, 18:36 UTC1 janv. 27, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsOn January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark
Manifold MarketsDo scaling laws happen because models experience a ton of tiny phase changes which average out to a smooth curve?
Manifold MarketsWill "Physics of RL: Toy scaling laws for the emerg..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Chinchilla presented The Scaling Laws
- [image]I'll not hold more than 10 shares in this market, though may make small token bets once in a while.
